Elections 2018: defeating blackburn one carp cap at a time

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Postby mcwop23 » Thu Jul 12, 2018 3:40 pm

palmer eldritch wrote:"swing voter" is mostly a silly concept but I believe that there is still such thing as persuadable voters



is it worth making the effort here to try to get 55% of these people on your side tho when you can make the effort to get 100% of the vote of new voters?
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Postby palmer eldritch » Thu Jul 12, 2018 3:46 pm

I don't think you'll get 100% of new voters in any scenario :P
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Postby Feech La Manna » Thu Jul 12, 2018 3:48 pm

that's what the drowning of College Republicans is for
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Postby palmer eldritch » Thu Jul 12, 2018 3:50 pm

for my first thought experiment, imagine an electorate pool where you can persuade 5% of the people who voted for the Republican in 2014 to flip. you just changed the margin by 10% in your favor. then layer on a much more favorable turnout environment. this is what you need to win the House.
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Postby palmer eldritch » Thu Jul 12, 2018 3:52 pm

for my second thought experiment, imagine a path to victory for Heitkamp, Manchin, McCaskill, and Donnelly that doesn't involve persuasion of Trump voters. turnout alone cannot win these races.
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Postby mcwop23 » Thu Jul 12, 2018 3:54 pm

i’m just thinking of those 19 year old kids voting for occasional-cortez in an off year mid-term primary and how many kids like that there out out there to persuade

This country is for shit
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Postby blurst of times » Thu Jul 12, 2018 3:55 pm

but the big swings in 2008 and 2010 weren't caused by moderates flipping sides but instead mostly by each party mobilizing its own voters to get to the polls and changing the composition of the electorate

also what is the difference between a swing and persuadable voter? seems like the same thing and represent an equally slim % of the population
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Postby KPH » Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:01 pm

Lots of Diane Black signs showing up on my street yaaaay
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Postby KPH » Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:04 pm

I live in her district in a very red county so it's no surprise, just...ugh
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Postby palmer eldritch » Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:04 pm

dun get hung up on pres GE to midterm patterns. consider instead that in the 2006 wave, Democrats won the 65+ vote by 2 points.
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Postby delgriffith » Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:12 pm

palmer eldritch wrote:dun get hung up on pres GE to midterm patterns. consider instead that in the 2006 wave, Democrats won the 65+ vote by 2 points.

I was always told/believed that this was in large part due to Bush trying to privatize Social Security. True/false?
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Postby delgriffith » Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:15 pm

lol classic Feinstein:

Democrats also resisted calls from the press and centrist policy advocates to commit to their own Social Security reform. “When Dianne Feinstein of California, who was also sympathetic to the White House’s position, signaled that she might propose an alternative plan, Senator Baucus quickly convinced her to abandon the idea,” Reid writes.


When Max Baucus is telling you that you're being too much of a centrist dipshit...
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Postby palmer eldritch » Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:18 pm

delgriffith wrote:
palmer eldritch wrote:dun get hung up on pres GE to midterm patterns. consider instead that in the 2006 wave, Democrats won the 65+ vote by 2 points.

I was always told/believed that this was in large part due to Bush trying to privatize Social Security. True/false?


that angle seemed effective and its something I "believe" but also the Republican brand was in the toilet so bad in general. by election day effects of the housing crash were starting to become apparent.
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Postby tgk » Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:20 pm

I was reading the comments on an Illinois political blog and one of them was lamenting how Rauner might be able to get re-elected against Pritzker if it weren't for "the democrats coming out of their skin right now" and that heartened me, I think people will be very, very motivated come november.
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Postby mcwop23 » Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:26 pm

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Postby palmer eldritch » Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:28 pm

that is truly awful
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Postby palmer eldritch » Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:37 pm

blurst of times wrote:but the big swings in 2008 and 2010 weren't caused by moderates flipping sides but instead mostly by each party mobilizing its own voters to get to the polls and changing the composition of the electorate

also what is the difference between a swing and persuadable voter? seems like the same thing and represent an equally slim % of the population


swing voters people usually mean self-ID independents that proudly Consider The Candidates. yeah they seem rare. there are states with high numbers of elastic voters, like NH, or places like MA and MT that have both parties viable despite obvious leans unlike say where CA and TX are currently at.

persuadable voters could be swing voters but also people who have consistently voted one way for a while. for Trump that was midwestern and rural white democrats. for Democrats this year it's suburban whites (particularly women) and "ancestral" democrats that have stayed registered D but have been voting for Republicans (see: Conor Lamb's victory)
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Postby palmer eldritch » Thu Jul 12, 2018 5:00 pm

I definitely was in the camp of It's All Turnout And Swing Vote Is Dead until the 2016 election disproved that

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/28/upshot/a-2016-review-turnout-wasnt-the-driver-of-clintons-defeat.html
https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/article147475484.html

I mean here "swing vote" is demographic realignment but persuasion is part of effecting a realignment
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Postby palmer eldritch » Thu Jul 12, 2018 5:03 pm

so now persuasion is something I think about.
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Postby palmer eldritch » Thu Jul 12, 2018 5:04 pm

and in summary, that's why I bought a phil bredesen carp cap. get yours today
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Postby farmer » Thu Jul 12, 2018 5:05 pm

I need a bredecarp cap. And prob to volunteer a lil bit
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Postby G_S » Thu Jul 12, 2018 5:13 pm

mcwop23 wrote:


fwiw, this was the branch Our Revolution Orlando, not the national org. but it's still extremely stupid. this is definitely a case of someone who worked on one of grayson's old campaigns. those were lacunae for progressives around here and a lot of them went on to berniebrodom.
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Postby shark week » Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:31 pm

palmer eldritch wrote:I definitely was in the camp of It's All Turnout And Swing Vote Is Dead until the 2016 election disproved that

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/28/upshot/a-2016-review-turnout-wasnt-the-driver-of-clintons-defeat.html
https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/article147475484.html

I mean here "swing vote" is demographic realignment but persuasion is part of effecting a realignment


without taking the time to read what has been linked, i recall a couple mentions of a significant amount of voters deciding to vote Trump in the final week in the lead up to the election. this morning i was looking at 2016 state-level polls for Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania and the last week of polling seemed to back that up.

would those voters be deemed persuadable voters?
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Postby shark week » Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:33 pm

also, i ran into* Chrissy Houlahan this afternoon and now i'm wondering what her chances are against Costello in PA-06

edit: i didn't actually meet her. i engaged in polite social behavior with her
Last edited by shark week on Fri Jul 13, 2018 12:26 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Postby palmer eldritch » Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:55 pm

her chances are good because Costello quit the race
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Postby G_S » Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:16 pm

Emails
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Postby farmer » Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:17 pm

Imo swing voters are not worth attempting to persuade at all, and certainly not worth building a campaign around. If you are so fucking stupid or low information that you are undecided with a week to go, you may as well decide based on how many farts you released at the voting booth (odd means dem, even means gop obv).

Plenty of "swing" voters will end up voting dem for absurd, irrational, and idiosyncratic reasons. Never confuse the fact that the ones that broke in your direction did so because of your persuasion, any more than you persuaded a coin to flip tails.

Go for the nonvoters and make sure to turn out your base, full stop.
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Postby palmer eldritch » Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:24 pm

shark week wrote:
palmer eldritch wrote:I definitely was in the camp of It's All Turnout And Swing Vote Is Dead until the 2016 election disproved that

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/28/upshot/a-2016-review-turnout-wasnt-the-driver-of-clintons-defeat.html
https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/article147475484.html

I mean here "swing vote" is demographic realignment but persuasion is part of effecting a realignment


without taking the time to read what has been linked, i recall a couple mentions of a significant amount of voters deciding to vote Trump in the final week in the lead up to the election. this morning i was looking at 2016 state-level polls for Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania and the last week of polling seemed to back that up.

would those voters be deemed persuadable voters?


there was good evidence that the late breakers went to Trump in a lot of key places but I dunno what the profile of these folks is. maybe someone looked into it.
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Postby palmer eldritch » Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:50 pm

farmer wrote:Imo swing voters are not worth attempting to persuade at all, and certainly not worth building a campaign around. If you are so fucking stupid or low information that you are undecided with a week to go, you may as well decide based on how many farts you released at the voting booth (odd means dem, even means gop obv).

Plenty of "swing" voters will end up voting dem for absurd, irrational, and idiosyncratic reasons. Never confuse the fact that the ones that broke in your direction did so because of your persuasion, any more than you persuaded a coin to flip tails.

Go for the nonvoters and make sure to turn out your base, full stop.


but that's how it works. most campaigns stop attempting persuasion by the last week and GOTV. actually that's what Clinton was doing!
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Postby Feech La Manna » Thu Jul 12, 2018 11:59 pm

in case anyone thought Crowley was still acting in good faith

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