Elections 2018: defeating blackburn one carp cap at a time

Health insurance rip off lying FDA big bankers buying
Fake computer crashes dining
Cloning while they're multiplying
Fashion shoots with Beck and Hanson
Courtney Love, and Marilyn Manson
You're all fakes
Run to your mansions
Come around
We'll kick your ass in

Postby palmer eldritch » Thu Jul 12, 2018 1:21 pm

it's also clear that there are a lot of active campaigns out there in medium red territory
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Postby palmer eldritch » Thu Jul 12, 2018 1:23 pm

if you try to graph that as Trump vs Clinton margin on the x axis it goes to shit. PVI is a lot better. it fits with observations that some have drawn from special election patterns (some people say Obama '12 is a better baseline to use)
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Postby messier object » Thu Jul 12, 2018 1:38 pm

delgriffith wrote:
palmer eldritch wrote:

This rules. We gonna go to Delaware and canvass, palmer?

ah screw it, i’m down to drive to Wilmington a bunch, fuck to Carper
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Postby delgriffith » Thu Jul 12, 2018 1:42 pm

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Postby Feech La Manna » Thu Jul 12, 2018 1:50 pm

The Democrats are imploding I saw a hashtag about it
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Postby Buzz Fledderjohn » Thu Jul 12, 2018 1:59 pm

unpopular hipinion alert:

i don't think Abolish ICE is going to play extremely well in the general election this fall
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Postby tgk » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:04 pm

Buzz Fledderjohn wrote:unpopular hipinion alert:

i don't think Abolish ICE is going to play extremely well in the general election this fall


yeah, unless of course some horrendous stories about ICE agents comes out between now and the election to paint the organization in a negative light.
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Postby Buzz Fledderjohn » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:05 pm

unless it's horrendous actions towards white people it won't make much of a dent outside of dem primaries
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Postby tgk » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:09 pm

I dunno, i want to see dems go all out on healthcare and immigration, those feel like winners to me.
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Postby mcwop23 » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:10 pm

theres literally zero people who would vote democratic that wouldn’t because of abolish ice
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Postby Buzz Fledderjohn » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:10 pm

healthcare and TAXES yes

country is still too racist to go hard on immigration
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Postby Bartatua » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:10 pm

tgk wrote:I dunno, i want to see dems go all out on healthcare and immigration, those feel like winners to me.


no quarter, no concessions on these points

also higher ed imo
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Postby Buzz Fledderjohn » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:11 pm

mcwop23 wrote:theres literally zero people who would vote democratic that wouldn’t because of abolish ice


disagree
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Postby tgk » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:14 pm

The immigration crisis is one of those things that needs to be hammered home by every dem at every rally I could give a fucking shit if that isn't a "winning" strategy.
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Postby Buzz Fledderjohn » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:17 pm

right, but i think we're saying two different things

that's the right thing to do, and i hope dems give it a shot. but that doesn't mean the american people that elected donald trump president will be receptive to Abolish ICE, open-ish borders, and the most progressive immigration policies.
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Postby tgk » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:17 pm

Like, pushing out Al Franken made a lot of shitty dems angry and it may have made things more difficult overall for the dem coalition, but it was the right thing to do and we'd regret it if we didn't. Like look at Jim Jordan, if Franken was still a senator the reps would use him as an example of how dems don't really care about this stuff etc.
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Postby mcwop23 » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:18 pm

abolish ice is a stance that’ll help get the people who don’t vote to vote
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Postby Buzz Fledderjohn » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:21 pm

i think a lot of the more progressive/socialist issues that are used as boogeymen and assumed losers in general elections - medicare-for-all, big taxes on rich, etc. - would absolutely be successful in campaigns given the right messengers

i'm just not confident in middle america's ability to not get swayed by fearmongering attack ads around dems wanting to abolish ICE and loosen up the borders. that doesn't mean it's not right and they shouldn't try, i'm just being cynical because this is a racist-ass country that elected donald trump because of his racism and everything blows.
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Postby palmer eldritch » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:23 pm

I'm not convinced that abolish ice will have much net effect. there were going to be a bunch of racist immigration ads against democrats either way.
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Postby Feech La Manna » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:24 pm

palmer eldritch wrote:I'm not convinced that abolish ice will have much net effect. there were going to be a bunch of racist immigration ads against democrats either way.


yup

Republicans already say shit like Democrats love MS-13 and Obama created ISIS so just go for the gold
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Postby deadbass » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:25 pm

Yeah it's kind of weird to me that no one has been particularly successful at wedding socialist policies with the Christian vote, given how well they go together (like, if they actually understand the religion they follow). Of course, someone like William Barber is great, but thinking more on a national level.
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Postby palmer eldritch » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:25 pm

I'm also not really convinced immigration is a good issue for democrats to run on. the ones in competitive races will mostly talk about health care as much as possible.
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Postby palmer eldritch » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:26 pm

and gold old fashioned The Other Guy Sucks
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Postby Feech La Manna » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:27 pm

palmer eldritch wrote:I'm also not really convinced immigration is a good issue for democrats to run on. the ones in competitive races will mostly talk about health care as much as possible.


Isn't the popularity of the tax bill still cratering? There's a lot of good messaging you can do on it.
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Postby blurst of times » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:27 pm

Agree with mcwop. Tangentially related: the idea of the "swing voter" is practically obsolete at this point; even people who identify as independent overwhelmingly vote for one party. Catering an entire electoral strategy around a basically nonexistent demographic is pointless

Jamelle bouie makes these points better here https://amp.slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/07/democratic-leaders-should-stop-worrying-and-embrace-calls-to-abolish-ice.html#click=https://t.co/12pnuVCdJC
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Postby Feech La Manna » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:27 pm

Health care is definitely #1 though
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Postby palmer eldritch » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:34 pm

Feech La Manna wrote:
palmer eldritch wrote:I'm also not really convinced immigration is a good issue for democrats to run on. the ones in competitive races will mostly talk about health care as much as possible.


Isn't the popularity of the tax bill still cratering? There's a lot of good messaging you can do on it.


it works as a good corollary issue, especially in areas where SALT changes give you a clear claim that the Republicans raised Your Taxes. but in a lot of the country it just seems to be something no one really cares a lot about either way, or going into specific knocks takes too much work.
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Postby tgk » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:35 pm

blurst of times wrote:Agree with mcwop. Tangentially related: the idea of the "swing voter" is practically obsolete at this point


I was cleaning out the back porch and found some posters we made for a protest like 2-3 years ago and one of them said "if you're neutral in situations of injustice then you are on the side of the oppressor" and it just felt so, so outdated in 2018. Fucking nobody is on the fence anymore or is a "swing voter" you're either with trump or against him, there's no more neutrality.
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Postby palmer eldritch » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:39 pm

"swing voter" is mostly a silly concept but I believe that there is still such thing as persuadable voters
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Postby easy » Thu Jul 12, 2018 3:27 pm

palmer eldritch wrote:why would you be more annoyed to get a text than get phonebanked


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