Elections 2018.

Health insurance rip off lying FDA big bankers buying
Fake computer crashes dining
Cloning while they're multiplying
Fashion shoots with Beck and Hanson
Courtney Love, and Marilyn Manson
You're all fakes
Run to your mansions
Come around
We'll kick your ass in

Postby palmer eldritch » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:26 pm

and gold old fashioned The Other Guy Sucks
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Postby Feech La Manna » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:27 pm

palmer eldritch wrote:I'm also not really convinced immigration is a good issue for democrats to run on. the ones in competitive races will mostly talk about health care as much as possible.


Isn't the popularity of the tax bill still cratering? There's a lot of good messaging you can do on it.
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Postby blurst of times » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:27 pm

Agree with mcwop. Tangentially related: the idea of the "swing voter" is practically obsolete at this point; even people who identify as independent overwhelmingly vote for one party. Catering an entire electoral strategy around a basically nonexistent demographic is pointless

Jamelle bouie makes these points better here https://amp.slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/07/democratic-leaders-should-stop-worrying-and-embrace-calls-to-abolish-ice.html#click=https://t.co/12pnuVCdJC
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Postby Feech La Manna » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:27 pm

Health care is definitely #1 though
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Postby palmer eldritch » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:34 pm

Feech La Manna wrote:
palmer eldritch wrote:I'm also not really convinced immigration is a good issue for democrats to run on. the ones in competitive races will mostly talk about health care as much as possible.


Isn't the popularity of the tax bill still cratering? There's a lot of good messaging you can do on it.


it works as a good corollary issue, especially in areas where SALT changes give you a clear claim that the Republicans raised Your Taxes. but in a lot of the country it just seems to be something no one really cares a lot about either way, or going into specific knocks takes too much work.
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Postby tgk » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:35 pm

blurst of times wrote:Agree with mcwop. Tangentially related: the idea of the "swing voter" is practically obsolete at this point


I was cleaning out the back porch and found some posters we made for a protest like 2-3 years ago and one of them said "if you're neutral in situations of injustice then you are on the side of the oppressor" and it just felt so, so outdated in 2018. Fucking nobody is on the fence anymore or is a "swing voter" you're either with trump or against him, there's no more neutrality.
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Postby palmer eldritch » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:39 pm

"swing voter" is mostly a silly concept but I believe that there is still such thing as persuadable voters
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Postby easy » Thu Jul 12, 2018 3:27 pm

palmer eldritch wrote:why would you be more annoyed to get a text than get phonebanked


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Postby mcwop23 » Thu Jul 12, 2018 3:40 pm

palmer eldritch wrote:"swing voter" is mostly a silly concept but I believe that there is still such thing as persuadable voters



is it worth making the effort here to try to get 55% of these people on your side tho when you can make the effort to get 100% of the vote of new voters?
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Postby palmer eldritch » Thu Jul 12, 2018 3:46 pm

I don't think you'll get 100% of new voters in any scenario :P
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Postby Feech La Manna » Thu Jul 12, 2018 3:48 pm

that's what the drowning of College Republicans is for
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Postby palmer eldritch » Thu Jul 12, 2018 3:50 pm

for my first thought experiment, imagine an electorate pool where you can persuade 5% of the people who voted for the Republican in 2014 to flip. you just changed the margin by 10% in your favor. then layer on a much more favorable turnout environment. this is what you need to win the House.
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Postby palmer eldritch » Thu Jul 12, 2018 3:52 pm

for my second thought experiment, imagine a path to victory for Heitkamp, Manchin, McCaskill, and Donnelly that doesn't involve persuasion of Trump voters. turnout alone cannot win these races.
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Postby mcwop23 » Thu Jul 12, 2018 3:54 pm

i’m just thinking of those 19 year old kids voting for occasional-cortez in an off year mid-term primary and how many kids like that there out out there to persuade

This country is for shit
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Postby blurst of times » Thu Jul 12, 2018 3:55 pm

but the big swings in 2008 and 2010 weren't caused by moderates flipping sides but instead mostly by each party mobilizing its own voters to get to the polls and changing the composition of the electorate

also what is the difference between a swing and persuadable voter? seems like the same thing and represent an equally slim % of the population
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Postby KPH » Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:01 pm

Lots of Diane Black signs showing up on my street yaaaay
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Postby KPH » Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:04 pm

I live in her district in a very red county so it's no surprise, just...ugh
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Postby palmer eldritch » Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:04 pm

dun get hung up on pres GE to midterm patterns. consider instead that in the 2006 wave, Democrats won the 65+ vote by 2 points.
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Postby delgriffith » Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:12 pm

palmer eldritch wrote:dun get hung up on pres GE to midterm patterns. consider instead that in the 2006 wave, Democrats won the 65+ vote by 2 points.

I was always told/believed that this was in large part due to Bush trying to privatize Social Security. True/false?
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Postby delgriffith » Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:15 pm

lol classic Feinstein:

Democrats also resisted calls from the press and centrist policy advocates to commit to their own Social Security reform. “When Dianne Feinstein of California, who was also sympathetic to the White House’s position, signaled that she might propose an alternative plan, Senator Baucus quickly convinced her to abandon the idea,” Reid writes.


When Max Baucus is telling you that you're being too much of a centrist dipshit...
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Postby palmer eldritch » Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:18 pm

delgriffith wrote:
palmer eldritch wrote:dun get hung up on pres GE to midterm patterns. consider instead that in the 2006 wave, Democrats won the 65+ vote by 2 points.

I was always told/believed that this was in large part due to Bush trying to privatize Social Security. True/false?


that angle seemed effective and its something I "believe" but also the Republican brand was in the toilet so bad in general. by election day effects of the housing crash were starting to become apparent.
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Postby tgk » Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:20 pm

I was reading the comments on an Illinois political blog and one of them was lamenting how Rauner might be able to get re-elected against Pritzker if it weren't for "the democrats coming out of their skin right now" and that heartened me, I think people will be very, very motivated come november.
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Postby mcwop23 » Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:26 pm

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Postby palmer eldritch » Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:28 pm

that is truly awful
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Postby palmer eldritch » Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:37 pm

blurst of times wrote:but the big swings in 2008 and 2010 weren't caused by moderates flipping sides but instead mostly by each party mobilizing its own voters to get to the polls and changing the composition of the electorate

also what is the difference between a swing and persuadable voter? seems like the same thing and represent an equally slim % of the population


swing voters people usually mean self-ID independents that proudly Consider The Candidates. yeah they seem rare. there are states with high numbers of elastic voters, like NH, or places like MA and MT that have both parties viable despite obvious leans unlike say where CA and TX are currently at.

persuadable voters could be swing voters but also people who have consistently voted one way for a while. for Trump that was midwestern and rural white democrats. for Democrats this year it's suburban whites (particularly women) and "ancestral" democrats that have stayed registered D but have been voting for Republicans (see: Conor Lamb's victory)
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Postby palmer eldritch » Thu Jul 12, 2018 5:00 pm

I definitely was in the camp of It's All Turnout And Swing Vote Is Dead until the 2016 election disproved that

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/28/upshot/a-2016-review-turnout-wasnt-the-driver-of-clintons-defeat.html
https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/article147475484.html

I mean here "swing vote" is demographic realignment but persuasion is part of effecting a realignment
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Postby palmer eldritch » Thu Jul 12, 2018 5:03 pm

so now persuasion is something I think about.
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Postby palmer eldritch » Thu Jul 12, 2018 5:04 pm

and in summary, that's why I bought a phil bredesen carp cap. get yours today
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Postby farmer » Thu Jul 12, 2018 5:05 pm

I need a bredecarp cap. And prob to volunteer a lil bit
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Postby G_S » Thu Jul 12, 2018 5:13 pm

mcwop23 wrote:


fwiw, this was the branch Our Revolution Orlando, not the national org. but it's still extremely stupid. this is definitely a case of someone who worked on one of grayson's old campaigns. those were lacunae for progressives around here and a lot of them went on to berniebrodom.
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