Elections 2018. 7 weeks.

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Postby shark week » Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:31 pm

palmer eldritch wrote:I definitely was in the camp of It's All Turnout And Swing Vote Is Dead until the 2016 election disproved that

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/28/upshot/a-2016-review-turnout-wasnt-the-driver-of-clintons-defeat.html
https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/article147475484.html

I mean here "swing vote" is demographic realignment but persuasion is part of effecting a realignment


without taking the time to read what has been linked, i recall a couple mentions of a significant amount of voters deciding to vote Trump in the final week in the lead up to the election. this morning i was looking at 2016 state-level polls for Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania and the last week of polling seemed to back that up.

would those voters be deemed persuadable voters?
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Postby shark week » Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:33 pm

also, i ran into* Chrissy Houlahan this afternoon and now i'm wondering what her chances are against Costello in PA-06

edit: i didn't actually meet her. i engaged in polite social behavior with her
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Postby palmer eldritch » Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:55 pm

her chances are good because Costello quit the race
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Postby G_S » Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:16 pm

Emails
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Postby farmer » Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:17 pm

Imo swing voters are not worth attempting to persuade at all, and certainly not worth building a campaign around. If you are so fucking stupid or low information that you are undecided with a week to go, you may as well decide based on how many farts you released at the voting booth (odd means dem, even means gop obv).

Plenty of "swing" voters will end up voting dem for absurd, irrational, and idiosyncratic reasons. Never confuse the fact that the ones that broke in your direction did so because of your persuasion, any more than you persuaded a coin to flip tails.

Go for the nonvoters and make sure to turn out your base, full stop.
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Postby palmer eldritch » Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:24 pm

shark week wrote:
palmer eldritch wrote:I definitely was in the camp of It's All Turnout And Swing Vote Is Dead until the 2016 election disproved that

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/28/upshot/a-2016-review-turnout-wasnt-the-driver-of-clintons-defeat.html
https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/article147475484.html

I mean here "swing vote" is demographic realignment but persuasion is part of effecting a realignment


without taking the time to read what has been linked, i recall a couple mentions of a significant amount of voters deciding to vote Trump in the final week in the lead up to the election. this morning i was looking at 2016 state-level polls for Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania and the last week of polling seemed to back that up.

would those voters be deemed persuadable voters?


there was good evidence that the late breakers went to Trump in a lot of key places but I dunno what the profile of these folks is. maybe someone looked into it.
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Postby palmer eldritch » Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:50 pm

farmer wrote:Imo swing voters are not worth attempting to persuade at all, and certainly not worth building a campaign around. If you are so fucking stupid or low information that you are undecided with a week to go, you may as well decide based on how many farts you released at the voting booth (odd means dem, even means gop obv).

Plenty of "swing" voters will end up voting dem for absurd, irrational, and idiosyncratic reasons. Never confuse the fact that the ones that broke in your direction did so because of your persuasion, any more than you persuaded a coin to flip tails.

Go for the nonvoters and make sure to turn out your base, full stop.


but that's how it works. most campaigns stop attempting persuasion by the last week and GOTV. actually that's what Clinton was doing!
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Postby Feech La Manna » Thu Jul 12, 2018 11:59 pm

in case anyone thought Crowley was still acting in good faith

badhat wrote:bike solve all problems
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Postby Feech La Manna » Fri Jul 13, 2018 12:01 am



the poor fucking guy
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Postby palmer eldritch » Fri Jul 13, 2018 11:09 am

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Postby palmer eldritch » Fri Jul 13, 2018 11:10 am

me-02 is obvious, moving mi-08 is interesting
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Postby mortimer » Fri Jul 13, 2018 11:11 am

Rick Scotti s going to win. Florida is cursed.
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Postby palmer eldritch » Fri Jul 13, 2018 11:14 am

oh Bishop's opponent has raided uh a lot of money
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Postby G_S » Fri Jul 13, 2018 1:01 pm

mortimer wrote:Rick Scotti s going to win. Florida is cursed.


we are the curse
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Postby G_S » Fri Jul 13, 2018 1:05 pm

the new anti-scott ads I saw during jeopardy last night gave me hope

no one in FL is doing it better than gwen graham right now
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Postby G_S » Fri Jul 13, 2018 1:06 pm

AOC remains so fucking good at this stuff

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Postby Bob511 » Sat Jul 14, 2018 2:40 am

Image

I guess I just don't get Weird Left Twitter.
Last edited by Bob511 on Sat Jul 14, 2018 11:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby mcwop23 » Sat Jul 14, 2018 7:39 am

palmer eldritch wrote:



if FL-06 was even remotely a race we should be doing well this election day
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Postby delgriffith » Sat Jul 14, 2018 8:43 am

Bob511 wrote:

I guess I just don't get Weird Left Twitter.

What the fuck is Nate's problem?
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Postby laserblast » Sat Jul 14, 2018 10:09 am

palmer eldritch wrote:
shark week wrote:
palmer eldritch wrote:I definitely was in the camp of It's All Turnout And Swing Vote Is Dead until the 2016 election disproved that

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/28/upshot/a-2016-review-turnout-wasnt-the-driver-of-clintons-defeat.html
https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/article147475484.html

I mean here "swing vote" is demographic realignment but persuasion is part of effecting a realignment


without taking the time to read what has been linked, i recall a couple mentions of a significant amount of voters deciding to vote Trump in the final week in the lead up to the election. this morning i was looking at 2016 state-level polls for Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania and the last week of polling seemed to back that up.

would those voters be deemed persuadable voters?


there was good evidence that the late breakers went to Trump in a lot of key places but I dunno what the profile of these folks is. maybe someone looked into it.


i don't think you can draw too many meaningful conclusions from these folks thanks to our homey, james comey. pretty extraordinary circumstances eh
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Postby Feech La Manna » Sat Jul 14, 2018 10:10 am

that Nate Cohn tweet is deleted now, what did it say?
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Postby VHGisdead » Sat Jul 14, 2018 11:07 am

it was a bizarre observation of a physical resemblance between two women of color, one running for Congress, one standing next to a candidate (??) with pictures attached
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Postby Bob511 » Sat Jul 14, 2018 11:57 am

It did seem from the start like a tweet not long for this world.
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Postby palmer eldritch » Sat Jul 14, 2018 1:21 pm

oh yeah I saw that last night and said a little uh oh for my boy.
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Postby Kiki » Sat Jul 14, 2018 1:29 pm

G_S wrote:the new anti-scott ads I saw during jeopardy last night gave me hope

no one in FL is doing it better than gwen graham right now



Are you saying she's the best option?
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Postby palmer eldritch » Sat Jul 14, 2018 3:05 pm

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Postby palmer eldritch » Sat Jul 14, 2018 3:06 pm

that race will be expensive. I had a dream about driving through dallas last night actually.
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Postby palmer eldritch » Sat Jul 14, 2018 3:32 pm

in the dream i bought a house surrounded by a corn field. I kept seeing floating orbs in the field. it turned out to be a race of bird people but if you tried to photograph them, which they would gladly pose for as a family, the portaits looked like humans, so no one believed me.
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Postby tgk » Sat Jul 14, 2018 4:03 pm

Sounds like a normal day in Indiana to me
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Postby Big Oil » Sat Jul 14, 2018 11:48 pm

:ahuh:

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